Global Economic depression. Which countries will be the worst affected?
Answer:
It depends on the source of the depression but speaking in general terms it will be the countries who depend on the smooth functioning of international business.
For the most part it will be middle and small powers that rely on trade for a considerable part of GDP. For example, a country like Canada would be devastated by a global economic depression. A substantial proportion (40-50%) of Canadian GDP is derived from trade. If other countries' demand for goods decreased due to depression, then net exporting countries would feel the results.
It also depends on the effectiveness of capital controls. The 1994 Asian Financial Crisis was exacerbated by poor (or no) capital controls which allowed massive amounts of money to be drained from these economies on the basis of forecasting by speculators. As a result, countries surrounding those suffering from financial collapse also felt the effects of poor financial performance in neighbouring countries as investor confidence declines. This is called financial crisis contagion and would be a huge factor in the effects felt by countries and also which countries would be affected. For the most part it is underdeveloped economies that have weak capital controls and would be subject to these pressures.
USA accounts for the biggest slice of the pie. If US economy crashes, the whole world would be affected. Those that would be most affected are the 3rd world, or countries that are heavily dependent on USA to purchaase their exports.
Also countries that are expecting, many tourists from USAwill be worst affected.
Worst off countries during the Second Great Depression will be those overpopulated nations that have to import food. They will rapidly de-populate about a year after the Great Crash, when fertilizer costs, oil shortages and rural economic collapse hits the western (food producing) world.
Nations like America, Canada, Australia and the EU will collapse first. There economies need constant growth and once that ends, there will be massive poverty and localized starvation in certain areas (subject to land conditions and transport issues), 30 years of rural neglect will speed up the food shortages.
The liberal pinkoes are not going to like it. Depression and declining oil production means the end of immigration and multicultrulism and the expensive wealfare state. All these things need economic stability and lots of oil, so they will go. Our democracies will collapse as they are naturally too slow to react to the crisis.
After the west goes down, China and the rest of the world will plunge into a universal famine as the global food production supersystem collapses. There will be no escape, no country (especially when it has 45%+unemployment and famine) will accept refugees/immigrants, unless it wants civil war. Plus there will not be enough oil to fuel the vihcles to move such people. The airline industry will collapse as will shipping.
Eventually the human race will fight a global war over the remaining resources.
So a global depression will be bad for everyone.
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