Forecasters predictions of inflation are notoriously inaccurate?
Answer:
A forecast almost certainly will be wrong.
A forecast consists of listing all the possible outcomes, assigning probabilities to each outcome, and then finding the mean -- the average expected value.
There are lots of possible outcomes, most with a positive probability of happening. The forecaster is just picking the most likely outcome -- not the only outcome.
false
put some money on the chinese currency and have a look for yourself.
The forecasters are human. They are biased. Most are in academia and are liberal. They will always think that the inflation and economy will be better when someone they like is in power and worse when someone they don't like is there. So when they make any prediction they can't help guess above or below (depending on their politics) what it probably would be. You may have noticed that every month there is stories about how the economy has grown so much more than expected by "experts". They seem to be unable to explain why their predictions didn't match the reality. Reality is that they are just engaging in wishful thinking when they predict.
They certainly shouldn't be relied upon to make a financial prediction until after the fact. But for the most part, each time they are wrong they come right back and are correct.
Forecasting in any business has it's uncertainties, just look at the weathermen as examples.
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