Do you agree such prediction of Chinese economy in 2020?
Chinese nominal GDP may redouble to about 12 trillion USD in 2015 !
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1, Chinese currency is to appreciate inevitablely.
Nominal GDP is influenced by exchage rate very much .
it is not fit for China.
As I know,to stimulate export,China deliberately devalued its currency 560+% during 1980-1995.
Now,the appreciation of RMB just makes RMB come back to its normal status.
2, Chinese nominal GDP is only about 2.7 trillion USD in 2006.but it may redouble to 12 trillion USD in 2015 or so.
Now,Chinese currency appreciate at least 5% every year. Chinese real GDP grow 10+% every year. Chinese inflation is about 3% or so.
So,Chinese nominal GDP growth may hit 5%+10%+3%=18% or so. at such a speed, Chinese nominal GDP may double every 4-5 years.
So in 2015,Chinese nominal GDP may redoulbe to 12 trillion USD in 2015 or so.
SO,it per nominal GDP also may hit 10000 USD in 2015-2020.
3,USA's nominal GDP in 2006 is about 12 trillion.But in 2015,it may be only about 18-20 trillion USD.
So, in 2015 ,USD's nominal GDP should still be slightly more than China's.
But in 2020,it is very possible that China's GDP will overtake USA.
4,In 2015-2020,Chinese society may be as industrialized as S.korea today.
At that time,Chinese auto industry,chip industry and shipbuilding industry will be as mature as Chinese household appliance industry today and rule the world.
Chinese society will nearly finished its industrialization and start to stet into post-industrialization.
5,the social disparity in China will still be a big headache .
But the wealth gap between inland china and coastal china will be narrowed much!
Answer:
China is an industrial powerhouse. It is the engine that drives the economies of every country. That being said, it is more like a steam engine than a diesel engine. It creates its own potential to explode from internal pressure.
Central China is one of the factors that allows the country as a whole to realize the growth that you're talking about. That growth is a tenuous house of cards, butressed by an authoritarian gov't. It is not a sustainable model. The iniquities between the peasants and the industrialists will become so great, that some form of readjustment/ redistribution is inevitable.
Robert Reich, former Sec. of Labor, has an analogy that he calls the 'snap theory'. His concept deals with the US economy, but is just as applicable to China. He says that economies are like rubber bands; they either snap back (adjustments) or they snap/break (revolutions). When income and standards of living between the 'haves' and 'have nots' grows too wide, one of the snaps will occur. I believe that China will suffer the breaking snap because the priveledges that the industrialists have earned, combined with the authoritarianism and a lack of democratic mechanisms will create an antagonistic divide that will result in revolt of the working class.
Like I said before, China is a steam engine. The Industrialists, politicians, and the venture capitalists just keep shoveling more and more coal on the fire to make more steam to create personal wealth and elevate the national standing. The populace is forced to mine that coal and don't see the rewards. Eventually they will get tired of this slavery/serfdom and refuse to mine any more.
Unlike the mechanisms that built the US into the greatest economy in the world (in it's fading days), individual freedom is not a part of the Chinese lexicon. The US became unassailable because we had natural resources, isolation, moderate population growth, free markets, protection of intellectual property, and individual rights and freedoms. Greatness of the US as a country was the conglomeration of greatness acheived by individuals. Even poor people shared in the success of their masters to some extent, in that the status quo was maintained (that being that anyone could do whatever he wanted to make his mark and acheive a better standard of living).
Since its inception, until the most recent past, every generation of American has faired better than his parent's generation. That is not the case in China.
Sorry to be so long and vague. I'm not an economist, so I don't study the topics that you cite. I just understand how social dynamics work (or don't), and how far people can be pushed. Economies, whether national or in your own house, are 90% behavior and 10% mathematical.
China has a missing "middle class", which is the back bone of any true democratic society/economy. The people will never trust their government and with just cause. They can not control their population and past attempts to do so have thrown their society into an imbalance in gender demographics and wealth distributions. Their policies will lead to the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer. They will take advantage of their poor and will also take advantage of Americans. We are so anxious to get goods on the cheap that we contribute to the abuses of a society full of victims. I hope we learn something before it is too late.
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1, Chinese currency is to appreciate inevitablely.
Nominal GDP is influenced by exchage rate very much .
it is not fit for China.
As I know,to stimulate export,China deliberately devalued its currency 560+% during 1980-1995.
Now,the appreciation of RMB just makes RMB come back to its normal status.
2, Chinese nominal GDP is only about 2.7 trillion USD in 2006.but it may redouble to 12 trillion USD in 2015 or so.
Now,Chinese currency appreciate at least 5% every year. Chinese real GDP grow 10+% every year. Chinese inflation is about 3% or so.
So,Chinese nominal GDP growth may hit 5%+10%+3%=18% or so. at such a speed, Chinese nominal GDP may double every 4-5 years.
So in 2015,Chinese nominal GDP may redoulbe to 12 trillion USD in 2015 or so.
SO,it per nominal GDP also may hit 10000 USD in 2015-2020.
3,USA's nominal GDP in 2006 is about 12 trillion.But in 2015,it may be only about 18-20 trillion USD.
So, in 2015 ,USD's nominal GDP should still be slightly more than China's.
But in 2020,it is very possible that China's GDP will overtake USA.
4,In 2015-2020,Chinese society may be as industrialized as S.korea today.
At that time,Chinese auto industry,chip industry and shipbuilding industry will be as mature as Chinese household appliance industry today and rule the world.
Chinese society will nearly finished its industrialization and start to stet into post-industrialization.
5,the social disparity in China will still be a big headache .
But the wealth gap between inland china and coastal china will be narrowed much!
Answer:
China is an industrial powerhouse. It is the engine that drives the economies of every country. That being said, it is more like a steam engine than a diesel engine. It creates its own potential to explode from internal pressure.
Central China is one of the factors that allows the country as a whole to realize the growth that you're talking about. That growth is a tenuous house of cards, butressed by an authoritarian gov't. It is not a sustainable model. The iniquities between the peasants and the industrialists will become so great, that some form of readjustment/ redistribution is inevitable.
Robert Reich, former Sec. of Labor, has an analogy that he calls the 'snap theory'. His concept deals with the US economy, but is just as applicable to China. He says that economies are like rubber bands; they either snap back (adjustments) or they snap/break (revolutions). When income and standards of living between the 'haves' and 'have nots' grows too wide, one of the snaps will occur. I believe that China will suffer the breaking snap because the priveledges that the industrialists have earned, combined with the authoritarianism and a lack of democratic mechanisms will create an antagonistic divide that will result in revolt of the working class.
Like I said before, China is a steam engine. The Industrialists, politicians, and the venture capitalists just keep shoveling more and more coal on the fire to make more steam to create personal wealth and elevate the national standing. The populace is forced to mine that coal and don't see the rewards. Eventually they will get tired of this slavery/serfdom and refuse to mine any more.
Unlike the mechanisms that built the US into the greatest economy in the world (in it's fading days), individual freedom is not a part of the Chinese lexicon. The US became unassailable because we had natural resources, isolation, moderate population growth, free markets, protection of intellectual property, and individual rights and freedoms. Greatness of the US as a country was the conglomeration of greatness acheived by individuals. Even poor people shared in the success of their masters to some extent, in that the status quo was maintained (that being that anyone could do whatever he wanted to make his mark and acheive a better standard of living).
Since its inception, until the most recent past, every generation of American has faired better than his parent's generation. That is not the case in China.
Sorry to be so long and vague. I'm not an economist, so I don't study the topics that you cite. I just understand how social dynamics work (or don't), and how far people can be pushed. Economies, whether national or in your own house, are 90% behavior and 10% mathematical.
China has a missing "middle class", which is the back bone of any true democratic society/economy. The people will never trust their government and with just cause. They can not control their population and past attempts to do so have thrown their society into an imbalance in gender demographics and wealth distributions. Their policies will lead to the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer. They will take advantage of their poor and will also take advantage of Americans. We are so anxious to get goods on the cheap that we contribute to the abuses of a society full of victims. I hope we learn something before it is too late.
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