What are the chances that we could be headed for a climate shift?
Answer:
EDIT: Everything I say below applies in reverse to the dubious idea of a mini ice age. There's no scientific basis for believing that's going to happen. 99% of scientists believe we're in for global warming as far out as they can reasonably say. Hundreds of years, if not thousands.
The scientific community is not split 50/50. More like 99/1. Proof:
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/fu...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/scientific_...
"Regardless of these spats, the fact that the community overwhelmingly supports the consensus is evidenced by picking up any copy of Journal of Climate or similar, any scientific program at the AGU or EGU meetings, or simply going to talk to scientists (not the famous ones, the ones at your local university or federal lab). I challenge you, if you think there is some un-reported division, show me the hundreds of abstracts at the Fall meeting (the biggest confernce in the US on this topic) that support your view - you won't be able to. You can argue whether the consensus is correct, or what it really implies, but you can't credibly argue it doesn't exist."
Dr. James Baker - NOAA
"There's a better scientific consensus on this [climate change] than on any issue I know - except maybe Newton's second law of dynamics. Global warming is almost a no-brainer at this point,You really can't find intelligent, quantitative arguments to make it go away."
Dr. Jerry Mahlman, NOAA
"The overwhelming majority of atmospheric scientists around the world and our own National Academy of Sciences are in essential agreement on the facts of global warming and the significant contribution of human activity to that trend."
Russell E. Train, Republican, former environmental official under Presidents Nixon and Ford
"I agree with you (Gore) that the debate over climate change is over."
Rep. Dennis Hastert, Republican, Illinois
Hastert wouldn't agree with Gore on where to go to lunch, unless the case was overwhelming.
Note the source on this one (which is why it's merely "majority":
"While evidence suggests fluctuations in solar activity can affect climate on Earth, and that it has done so in the past, the majority of climate scientists and astrophysicists agree that the sun is not to blame for the current and historically sudden uptick in global temperatures on Earth, which seems to be mostly a mess created by our own species."
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,2583...
"The drafting of reports by the world’s pre-eminent group of climate scientists is an odd process. For many months scientists contributing to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change tussle over the evidence. Nothing gets published unless it achieves consensus. This means that the panel’s reports are extremely conservative – even timid. It also means that they are as trustworthy as a scientific document can be."
George Monbiot
So, we're headed for a climate shift.
The results will include coastal flooding and damage to agriculture.
In rich countries that will translate to them spending huge amounts to move people from the coasts, replace things lost, and build new irrigation systems and other things to save agriculture. In poor countries many (not all) will die of starvation. More details here:
http://www.reuters.com/article/sciencene...
http://www.ipcc.ch/spm040507.pdf...
But we could reduce it to a manageable level:
http://www.spiegel.de/international/worl...
Good websites for more info:
http://profend.com/global-warming/...
http://www.realclimate.org
"climate science from climate scientists"
The chances that we will undergo climate shifts are 100%.
Been that way since the Earth was created.
Generally, many species adapt, thrive, or go extinct.
Me, I'm worried about the Martian polar caps, which are melting.
We must all stop ManBearPig.
We are going through one now. Probably the coastal areas will go first.
Did you just get here ??
we are already inside climate change
here are some reasons why
and some more why´s
WHY
Why cant people accept what is happening to this planet ?
Why cant they accept that we humans have caused devastating destruction all over the planet .
And not just for the last 50 years ,the Sahara used to be forrests (,but you cant deforrest on the equator because you cant replant under that hot a sun.It is now growing 7 miles per year burning the edges .
IN THE PAST
The building of Spanish Armada made Spain a dessert country as the Phoenicians deforested Lebanon for their trading fleet.
Ghengas Kahn burned everything(cities ,agriculture,forrests ) and filled all the wells with sand ,turning vast teritories into desserts.
TODAY
Large parts of the world are turned into deserts because of irresponsible farming,overpumping carbon Aquifers ,over grazing ,deforestation,all causing desertification.
I have been in the jungles of Oaxaca and discussed with the Natives the mountain before us ,Mostly deforrested ,scarred by landslides and dotted with madly steep corn patches (which only produced for 3 years ),and devoid of clouds.
They all agreed that the days were hotter ,there was less rain ,And the river was dry part of the year.
When they were boys ,the river was bigger and ran all year around,the mountain was always covered in clouds with daily rains .And the days were more bearable .
Their actions in the desperate plight to feed their enormous families of avarage 12 kids per family ,often much more ,had destroyed their home ground with indisputable climate changes.
In Africa I have seen lush wooded lands change into dessert within a few years by large invading comunities ,who devoured the trees for building and firewood ending up in a dessert with out water
and with a hot sun under which no new plantation was possible.
Granted the climatic changes are local ,but effects neighboring areas ,there is less rainfall, rivers dry up ,
BUT these things are happening ALL over the world and nobody can convince me that COLLECTIVELY this does NOT effect the Global climate
Global precipitation,Global temperatures,Global water supplies ,Global everything.
Millions of hectares are lost because of the roads systems ,expanding population and the resulting settlements.
Mexico looses half a million hectares per year in the quest for Ethanol and this is happening in Africa ,Borneo,Malasia,etc and will become much much more ,when America passes a new bill about the production of Ethanol ,
Replacing indigenous forrests wiping out all the wild life and bio diversity and replacing it with monoculture plantations grown with fertilizers that will only have plagues of insects as inhabitants,which will be combatted with Pesticides .The natural soil balance will be destroyed and contiued growth will only be possible with chemicals .
Is there no limit to the waste of money and natural resources in this insane attempt to suposedly save te Environment .
Humans ARE contaminating ,the Air,the Soil and Waters.This evidence is for all to see all over the world ,
And cannot be whitewashed with claims that humanity is inocent .
OVERPOPULATION puts pressures on all Natural resources and increases all the bad side effects of Humanity such as deminishing the overall bio mass and wide spread polution
Why dont they want to look after Nature ,it is where all the conditions that makes life pleasant and possible for us comes from ?Air ,Food ,Water to grow food and to make beer with ,and most of all a bearable climate ,not to mention the absorbsion of harmfull gasses.
Why dont they want to keep the neighborhood clean so their kids dont have to play in the trash ,?
Why do they want to kill animals ?
Why is it important whose fault Global Warming is?
If it was Gaia who is fed up with the virus infesting her ,
If the Sun is having a stroke .?
If God (Jehova) is having a tantrum?
If humanity caused it ?
If it is Natural regular phenomina?
Who cares ?
What is important is that we are in the poop,and if we can do something that will make the poop less ,we should try to do it
By
A friend of the Planet
I am not a "global warmoing fanatic".
but I still believe we are in the middle of a climate shift.
I just don't blame it on man... Earth has had several ice ages... and several hot-house ages before man's ancestors crawled out of the mud and headed for the trees...
A mini ice age will not occur in the near future. However, we can expect a rise in sea levels over key coastlines. Areas threatened would be the Western coast of India, the British Isles, Holland, Bangladesh.
Key glaciers in the Himalayas have receded, and the chances of the Gangetic Plains being flooded are real within 50 years.
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