If meteorology is a science,why is the weatherman always wrong?
Answer:
Basically accurate weather prediction is impossible due to Chaos Theory. Weather patterns do not follow a set mathematical pattern. A change of temperature by half a degree can shift wind patterns, a slight rise in barometric pressure can effect weather patterns. It is impossible to fully predict what the weather will do when we still do not fully comprehend all the factors that effect weather.
Not all weather persons have actually studied meteorology. Some are just in communications.
Also, the weatherman told us that it was going to thunderstorm a few days ago and it was actually really sunny that day until around 4 o'clock, then it started storming like crazy.
Imagine a rotating sphere that is 12,800 kilometers (8000 miles) in diameter, has a bumpy surface, is surrounded by a 40-kilometer-deep mixture of different gases whose concentrations vary both spatially and over time, and is heated, along with its surrounding gases, by a nuclear reactor 150 million kilometers (93 million miles) away. Imagine also that this sphere is revolving around the nuclear reactor and that some locations are heated more during one part of the revolution and others during another part of the revolution. And imagine that this mixture of gases continually receives inputs from the surface below, generally calmly but sometimes through violent and highly localized injections. Then, imagine that after watching the gaseous mixture, you are expected to predict its state at one location on the sphere one, two, or more days into the future. This is essentially the task encountered day by day by a weather forecaster (Ryan, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,1982).
BTW, the weather forecast is not always wrong. To get the accuracy of different forecasters in your area, visit http://www.forecastadvisor.com/...
a science at being wrong. our weather people get it right about 5 out of 7 days. I think they do it to make the rest of us look stupid or to get a good laugh at them.
Bob, what I have seen here locally, in Spokane, Wa is that the weather men, and Women, work on getting as close to the actual temperature as possible, because the doppler radar can only tell them the distance of the cloud cover that changes with the air flow, and current that is from many factors of the Space Moon, Stars, but also the Suns Distance too. The Temperature from the earlier day, could or could not be the factor that regulates the next days temperatures. It could be from other outside currents, and are caused by Pressing outside the continent currents that are regulated by magnetic planetary and solar invisible currents that many Buddists call Karma, and are not written up in any jearnals yet. But could also be a factor in the weather changes. These Karma changes could be an added factor. Then there is Telecaneses Weather Witches, like myself who can wave their hand and do an incantation, then predict how they want the weather, and a week to two weeks later they start to see these changes. I have been doing this for years now, at no charge to anyone, because the results are variable and can be changed by other outside forces. I hope this explains some of the many mishaps for you to understand that the Meteorologists have to contend with.
The first answerer is right about chaos theory...but, beyond that, I have heard that the uncertainty increases to the point that it is theoretically almost impossible to predict the weather on any spot on earth beyond about 4 days. Thus the "long term" forecasts you see are pretty bogus (unless they say something like..."hot in Phoenix this summer."
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