Can you think of a time where you drew or identified an invalid conclusion that may have seemed valid?

Perhaps you experienced this in an argument with a friend, a debate in a class, or even something you read or saw on TV (maybe even in the presidential debates). How did you recognize this conclusion as invalid and what did you do to resolve it (if applicable)?

Answer:
..Funny you should ask!

A couple years ago, I had a disagreement with my software developer about what kind of web service we should create. I was convinced a self-help site was the next big thing. I saw how several unique features would have value that people would pay for.

He said I was wrong. He said people wouldn't pay for it. We disagreed.

But since I'm the boss, we followed my vision anyway. Turns out, it appealed mostly to young people seeking free entertainment, not paying customers. The real world proved that he was right all along!

We have since refocused and are now we're back on track...working on his vision of what will make money!

I usually screw up paradoxes which require backward inductive reasoning.

I just don't think that way. I'm more of a deductive person.

I haven't resolved the problem because I don't believe that backward inductive reasoning is a valid method for solving problems.

I might be thinking wrong about it, though.

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Can you think of a time where you drew or identified an invalid conclusion that may have seemed valid?

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